Tuesday, May 17, 2016

NJCAA Region XII Tournament Predictions

College baseball is one of the more underrated sports in America. Perhaps its due to the fact that unlike the top stars in collegiate football or basketball, the top college prospects take years through the minor league system to mature and develop before finally impacting an MLB team. This also affects the lack of national attention that the sport gets until it reaches its national tournament.

While the NCAA Tournament does not start for a couple of weeks (predictions along with a bracket challenge will take place at a later date), the NJCAA (National Junior College Athletic Association) is starting their tournament this week. The Region XII tournament, with the winner earning a spot at the NJCAA World Series in Enid, Oklahoma, begins Wednesday at Bailey Park in Battle Creek, Michigan. The top community colleges and two year schools from Michigan and Ohio will be taking part in the eight-team double elimination tournament throughout the weekend, with a champion being crowned Saturday. Due to work conflicts, I will only be in attendance Friday for those games (barring former Caledonia teammate Chris Clark and his team at Kellogg CC don't get eliminated early), but for a complete schedule click the link here.

These predictions will be constantly updated as each day's matchups are provided.

***UPDATE: FRIDAY RECAP AND SATURDAY PICKS***
Friday, Keegan and I took the venture down to CO Brown Stadium for the tournament, and I went three for three on picks. Sinclair squeaked out a 3-2 win over Kellogg in game one, Cuyahoga defeated Delta in a shootout in game two, then Kellogg mercied Cuyahoga 14-4 in game number three. This improves my mark to 11-1-1 on the tournament.

For Saturday's game, Keegan has decided to join in as our resident guest picker, as this filled up a lot of our time in the outfield Patio Porch and the car ride home.

Keegan has selected Sinclair to defeat Kellogg in Game 1 to take home the crown.
I will agree that the Tartan Pride, winners of 4 of 5 against KCC will win, however I will take them in two games, I feel Kellogg will squeak out the first win.


***UPDATE: THURSDAY REFLECTION AND FRIDAY PREDICTIONS***
Thursday I was a perfect 4 for 4 as all of the teams I selected below won the respective matchups. This brings my pick record to 8-1-1. This creates a tremendous day as a baseball fan down in Battle Creek as Kellogg and Sinclair will kick things off at 11:30am. At 3:00, Delta College and Cuyahoga will face off, with the winner of this game taking on the loser of the 11:30 game for a redemption opportunity Saturday.

FRIDAY PREDICTIONS (Game by Game)
Sinclair over Kellogg
      These teams have met four times back in early March, and Kellogg took the first game before losing the last three. Despite that Kellogg has played much better ball since returning north of the Mason-Dixon line, Sinclair has continued their strong play as they are ranked #5 in the country. This will be perhaps the best game of the tournament, and it could go either way unsurprisingly.
Cuyahoga over Delta
      Delta has been a hot team that has won eleven of twelve against teams from the state of Michigan. They have lost three times to Ohio teams this month, including twice by Cuyahoga. The curse of Ohio teams will continue for Delta.
Kellogg over Cuyahoga
      These two teams played a tightly contested game today, and a rematch would be equally competitive tomorrow. The pitching matchup would be the difference, but with this unknown, I will take the Bruins with a home field advantage to advance to Saturday's title game(s).


**UPDATE: WEDNEDSDAY REFLECTION AND THURSDAY PREDICTIONS**
Wednesday I went 4-1-1 with my predictions as I incorrectly picked Jackson to defeat Sinclair. The tie or push would be attributed to having the correct team lose the elimination game (GRCC) but the wrong opponent as a result of the Jackson/Sinclair mishap. Kellogg, Delta and Cuyahoga all also won their first games Wednesday, and then Jackson and Kalamazoo Valley advanced out of the losers bracket, while Grand Rapids CC and Lansing CC were eliminated.

THURSDAY PREDICTIONS (Game by Game)

Kellogg (M2) over Cuyahoga (S1)
     The Bruins are hot and are riding the momentum of a nail-biting win yesterday. I think the winner of this matchup is the heavy favorite to take home the title, don't be surprised for a rematch later also.
Sinclair (S2) over Delta (M3)
     Despite another convincing win yesterday, Delta just is not as talented as Sinclair. The differential there is too much for them to overcome as the Tartan Pride advance to Friday's semifinal.

THURSDAY LOSERS BRACKET GAMES:
Cuyahoga over Jackson
      I would change this prediction if Brad Allen is on the bump for the Jets, however I believe that the rest of the staff will not be able to slow down a potent Cuyahoga offense.
Delta over Kalamazoo Valley
     KVCC swept the season series, however Delta has played much better baseball in the month following those losses. Delta wins assuming they don't have a hangover from the Sinclair loss earlier.

These picks set up a tremendous Kellogg and Sinclair ball game Friday morning that I would love to be down in Battle Creek to watch. I think that the Kellogg and Cuyahoga game will be the game of the day as these two teams are evenly matched. The loser of that game could have their hands full as Jackson awaits, however they have struggled lately if Brad Allen is not on the hill. Regardless, one of the three teams will be sent home, which is unforunate because they are three of the four best teams, all on one side of the bracket. I expect the Kalamazoo Valley Cougars to go home tomorrow without a doubt however.

Check back Thursday night/Friday morning for updates and new predictions. If anyone is interested in a road trip with me Friday, feel free to contact me.

ORIGINAL POST
WEDNESDAY PREDICTIONS (Game by Game)

ROUND 1:
Kellogg (M2) over Kalamazoo Valley (M5)
       Kellogg has dominated KVCC all year (3-0 including a mercy) and it won't change here.
Delta (M3) over GRCC (M4)
       These teams split the season series, however Delta has been hot as they have won 9 of 10.
Cuyahoga (S1) over LCC (M6)
       Cuyahoga is ranked #9 in NJCAA D2, and just swept LCC on May 8 a combined 14-2.
Jackson (M1) over Sinclair (S2)
       Assuming Brad Allen is on the hill, I believe he is too much for Sinclair to handle. Allen threw a no-hitter at Bailey Park back on April 16.

WEDNESDAY LOSERS BRACKET GAMES:
Sinclair over GRCC
    Sinclair is the second best team here (Cuyahoga) and aside from Brad Allen, they would beat
Jackson. I think that the Tartan Pride defeat the Raiders in a big blowout, eliminating GRCC.
Kalamazoo Valley over LCC
   With equal conference records and similar bodies of work, the lone factor is that in their doubleheader played May 11, KVCC swept by a combined 16-2.

So to summarize, I believe that Grand Rapids Community College and Lansing Community College will have a short lived tournament experience that amounts to little more than a usual doubleheader in Battle Creek. This also sets up a matchup between Kellogg and Cuyahoga along with a Jackson and Delta matchup, while Sinclair and KVCC will have to await their opponents from there.

Thanks for reading and check back in to this same link late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as my predictions will be reviewed and new ones will be made for the following games.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Tuori Sports Talk Episode One: NCAA Bubble Talk

Last night, my cousin and fellow sports junkie Sam pitched the idea to me that we should start a sports talk podcast. I immediately thought this idea was fantastic, seeing that we already have hour long phone calls regularly to talk about sports. Now at least our banter would have a point and others could listen to our ideas and perhaps even be involved as well. So at 11:00 last night, Sam and I recorded the first episode of our podcast Tuori Sports Talk.

We spent 28 minutes talking about teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble and our opinions on what they need to do to get into the Big Dance. At the very end, we also decided to name our current Final Four teams and National Champion regardless of tournament draw.

I feel for a first episode that we not only pitched, researched and found the proper software all within a few hours, we did pretty well. I know that we will never run out of things to talk about so the results will only improve. Check it out here.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

College Hockey Power Index 1/7

Welcome to the second week of the CHPI, which was filled with a light schedule as a result of most schools still being on break. The biggest climb in the polls was the Dartmouth Big Green, who rose fourteen spots from 55 to 41. On the contrast, Brown, Maine and Mercyhurst all fell six spots. Without further ado, the latest CHPI rankings with a brief review of how the rankings are compiled.

These rankings are based off of four major components that consist of many different values:
1-Expected Victories based off of goals scored/allowed (Pythagorean W-L)
2-Strength of Schedule
3-Game Control
4-Scoring Efficiency

The January 7 College Hockey Power Index

1-St Cloud State   NCHC 2.112628
2-Boston College  HCKYE 1.969721
3-North Dakota NCHC 1.957811
4-Quinnipiac ECAC 1.956636
5-Nebraska-O NCHC 1.920704
6-Harvard ECAC 1.897867
7-Providence HCKYE 1.882921
8-Penn State B1G 1.729383
9-Cornell ECAC 1.664696
10-St. Lawrence ECAC 1.661099
11-Michigan B1G 1.636778
12-Rob. Morris ACHA 1.61929
13-UMASS-Lwl HCKYE 1.584811
14-Holy Cross ACHA 1.47138
15-Notre Dame HCKYE 1.445407
16-Bowling Grn WCHA 1.407581
17-Renesselaer ECAC 1.407106
18-Minn-Duluth NCHC 1.374566
19-Mich Tech WCHA 1.35598
20-Boston U HCKYE 1.335863
21-Union ECAC 1.331994
22-New Hamp HCKYE 1.331576
23-Yale ECAC 1.257565
24-Denver NCHC 1.209534
25-Ohio State B1G 1.187871
26-Anchorage WCHA 1.178804
27-Minnesota B1G 1.177174
28-Merrimack HCKYE 1.144884
29Minnesota St WCHA 1.136676
30-Bentley ACHA 1.131174
31-RIT ACHA 1.122453
32-Vermont HCKYE 1.111991
33-Ferris State WCHA 1.09702
34-Mercyhurst ACHA 1.080552
35-Northern MI WCHA 1.072706
36-Sacred Heart ACHA 1.068421
37-Western MI NCHC 1.03522
38-Wisconsin B1G 1.023277
39-Miami NCHC 1.005602
40-Bemidji St WCHA 0.989718
41-Dartmouth ECAC 0.989083
42-Michigan St B1G 0.982379
43-Air Force ACHA 0.981515
44-UMASS HCKYE 0.965942
45-Brown ECAC 0.941089
46-Clarkson ECAC 0.939239
47-Connecticut HCKYE 0.910424
48-Alaska WCHA 0.89154
49-Lake State WCHA 0.876511
50-Princeton ECAC 0.84621
51-Army ACHA 0.778678
52-Colgate ECAC 0.772251
53-Norteastern HCKYE 0.756337
54-AL-Hunstvlle WCHA 0.742092
55-Maine HCKYE 0.73996
56-Canisius ACHA 0.731994
57-Niagara ACHA 0.596968
58-Col. Collge NCHC 0.591595
59-Americn Intl ACHA 0.588042
60-Arizona St 0.423084

Thursday, December 31, 2015

College Hockey Power Index

Since the beginning of the college hockey season, I have been compiling a rankings system that I believe truly justifies the top team in the NCAA. This venture started as an inspiration based off of the KPI (Kevin Pauga Index) and my new-found love for college hockey(I currently hold season tickets for Michigan State). These rankings are based off of four major components that consist of many different values:
1-Expected Victories based off of goals scored/allowed (Pythagorean W-L)
2-Strength of Schedule
3-Game Control
4-Scoring Efficiency

The statistics that go into these numbers are then compiled to create a "Score" that is then ranked and the 60 team CHPI is created. I decided to wait until the season got rolling a bit to post my first rankings, and so today on December 31, the inaugural CHPI will be shared online. Enjoy.

1- St Cloud State 2.051768
2- Quinnipiac 1.977385
3- Boston College 1.969773
4- Providence 1.950979
5- North Dakota 1.931831
6- Nebraska-Omaha 1.915856
7- Harvard 1.816663
8- Robert Morris 1.748739
9- Penn State 1.734684
10- Cornell 1.660277
11- St. Lawrence 1.649832
12- Michigan 1.636295
13- UMASS-Lowell 1.592167
14- Notre Dame 1.470884
15- Renesselaer 1.443368
16- Holy Cross 1.419919
17- Bowling Green 1.394381
18- Minnesota-Duluth 1.374383
19- New Hampshire 1.368074
20- Michigan Tech 1.365101
21- Boston U 1.34006
22- Yale 1.282587
23- Denver 1.273844
24- Merrimack 1.254102
25- Union 1.252959
26- Ohio State 1.196428
27- Anchorage 1.185033
28- Minnesota 1.178065
29- Mercyhurst 1.177392
30 -Minnesota St 1.138274
31 -Bentley 1.128762
32 -Ferris State 1.079956
33 -Northern MI 1.076374
34 -Vermont 1.060458
35 -Western MI 1.033069
36 -Wisconsin 1.03056
37 -Bemidji State 0.988824
38 -Michigan St 0.984547
39 -RIT 0.975032
40 -Air Force 0.964064
41 -Massachusetts 0.94212
42 -Miami 0.93801
43 -Clarkson 0.931406
44 -Brown 0.906548
45 -Sacred Heart 0.90201
46 -Connecticut 0.893237
47 Lake Superior State 0.876327
48- Alaska 0.874456
49- Princeton 0.850106
50- Alabama-Huntsville 0.796489
51- Army 0.794527
52- Colgate 0.765791
53- Northeastern 0.749195
54- Dartmouth 0.747605
55- Maine 0.742141
56- Canisius 0.730316
57- Niagara 0.665492
58- Colorado College 0.59005
59- American Intl 0.558149
60- Arizona State 0.50332

The plan is to release the rankings every week Tuesday-Thursday before the weekend series begin. This will continue until the conference tournaments/NCAA tournament begin when I will give predictions on the College Hockey postseason outlook.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

WELCOME TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S WORST NIGHTMARE

So the CFP committee announced their four team field Sunday and nobody was surprised about a single selection, all teams are worthy of their respective shots at the CFP National Championship. Of course, there is always a complaint about expanding the College Football Playoff to 6 or 8 teams because some big name team is left out each year. As a result, I got crazy and with the combination of the CFP final rankings and the Sagarin College Football Rankings, I did the impossible and created the first annual Nick Tuori 128 team NCAA FBS College Football Championship. I will be using a combination of statistics and analytic methods to project the winners of the respective games and we will culminate with the first ever "True Champion" the same night of the CFP National Championship game (Jan 11).
The Playoff bracket layout consists of four "brackets" consisting of 4 "regions" of 8 teams a piece. The winner of region 1 plays the winner of region 16, region 2 v region 15, etc. Also, within each Region the 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5 matchups are shown below. Without further ado, here is the first annual NTCFC bracket:

BRACKET A
Region1
1 Clemson
8 Charlotte
4 Indiana
5 WesternMI
3 TexasAM
6 NewMexico
2 WestVirginia
7 OregonSt
Region16
1 OklahomaState
8 Kansas
4 PennState
5 Maryland
3 WashingtonSt
6 Kentucky
2 Baylor
7 Army
Region9
1 FloridaSt
8 TexasSt
4 GeorgiaTech
5 Air Force
3 WesternKY
6 Ohio
2 Temple
7 BallState
Region8
1 NotreDame
8 OldDominion
4 Arizona 
5 SouthernMiss
3 ArizonaSt
6 WakeForest
2 USC
7 FloridaAtlantic
BRACKET B
Region2
1 Alabama
8 EasternMI
4 Minnesota
5 S.Carolina
3 Pittsburgh
6 Purdue
2 Washington
7 GeorgiaSt
Region15
1 Oregon
8 Idaho
4 Nebraska
5 CentralMI
3 NCState
6 Vanderbilt
2 Houston
7 Tulane
Region10
1 N.Carolina
8 UTEP
4 SanDiegoSt
5 N.Illinois
3 BowlingGreen
6 Colorado
2 Tennessee
7 FloridaInt'l
Region7
1 Ohio St
8 Hawaii
4 Duke
5 Virginia
3 TexasTech
6 Tulsa
2 Arkansas
7 SMU
BRACKET C
Region3
1 MichiganState
8 NorthTexas
4 IowaState
5 Marshall
3 California
6 Nevada
2 UCLA
7 Troy
Region14
1 Michigan
8 UTSA
4 BoiseState
5 Syracuse
3 VirginiaTech
6 BostonCollege
2 Florida
7 UMASS
Region11
1 TCU
8 MiamiOH
4 KansasSt
5 LouisianaTech
3 Memphis
6 ColoradoSt
2 Utah
7 MiamiOH
Region6
1 Stanford
8 UCF
4 Cincinnati
5 Illinois
3 Auburn
6 Rutgers
2 Wisconsin
7
FresnoSt
BRACKET D
Region4
1 Oklahoma
8 ULMonroe
4 Missouri
5 ArkansasState
3 Louisville
6 SanJoseState
2 MississippiState
7 Buffalo
Region13
1 Northwestern
8 Wyoming
4 Texas
5 E.Carolina
3 MiamiFL
6 MiddleTennSt
2 LSU
7 Rice
Region12
1 Ole Miss
8 KentState
4 S.Florida
5 GeorgiaSouthern
3 Toledo
6 UCONN
2 Navy
7 Lafayette
Region5
1 Iowa
8 NewMexicoSt
4 AppalachianState
5 UtahSt
3 BYU
6 Akron
2 Georgia
7 UNLV

So obviously this is 64 different first round matchups, can you imagine the fun this would be on one single day/two days of college football?! The first round results will be posted Saturday night and the winners of each game will be advancing to the Round of 64. Stay tuned to find out College Football's first True Champion.